Real miss distances
STARLINK-30322 × STARLINK-35722: 0.78km. At 2.4 km/s. Pc = 3.56 × 10⁻⁴. This is today.
Debris vs active
1968 Soviet debris (COSMOS 252) on course for active Starlink at 1.6km. Debris can't maneuver.
RSW decomposition
Radial · In-track · Cross-track separation for every top event. Not just distance — geometry.
ML collision probability
Pc estimated from trajectory geometry using a classifier trained on historical CDM outcomes.
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